Fed officials tell activists rate hikes won’t derail economy

An unusually large group of Federal Reserve policymakers appeared before activists on Thursday and defended their plans to raise interest rates to keep the U.S. economy from eventually overheating. Several policymakers said raising interest rates gradually would allow them to stimulate the economy for longer, but that an overheating economy could end in a recession. "It's not about trying to stop the economy from growing," San Francisco Fed President John Williams told about 100 labor activists from the Fed Up coalition who pressed policymakers not to raise interest rates.
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Japan core inflation falls for 5th straight month

Household spending numbers are expected to be disappointing after Japan's July exports suffered their sharpest monthly fall in seven yearsFriday's data come ahead of household spending numbers next week, which are also expected to be disappointing, and after Japan's July exports suffered their sharpest monthly fall in seven years. Japanese officials are under intense pressure to deliver, as many economists increasingly write off Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's faltering bid to fire up the world's number three economy, dubbed Abenomics. The weak inflation figures will heap more pressure on Japan's central bank for another round of stimulus.

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Fed board is arguing over state of economy, policy – Fischer

The Federal Reserve's governors are debating what is going on in the U.S. economy and how to set policy, the Fed's No. 2 official said on Thursday. "The issue of overheating of the economy is being discussed within the Fed board," Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer told a room of labor activists who met with Fed officials to press them not to raise interest rates. "Everything that's being argued here is being argued in the board as well," said Fischer.
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Fed policymakers meet with activists, say they will not brake economy

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (Reuters) - Top Federal Reserve officials on Thursday defended their view that the U.S. central bank should probably raise interest rates soon, saying that they still intended to keep the economy running fast enough to boost employment and inflation.
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Trump victory could cause global recession: Citigroup

Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks to the crowd at a rally at the Mississippi Coliseum on August 24, 2016 in Jackson, MississippiIf New York developer Donald Trump wins the White House in November, the global economy could slip into recession, according to a forecast from Citigroup Thursday. In a research note a team led by the US bank's chief economist Willem Buiter said the election was a major source of uncertainty in the global economy. "Our base case is for a (Hillary) Clinton victory and mostly continuity in policies," the note said, adding that a Clinton administration could result in a major fiscal expansion.

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MBS RECAP: Markets Offer No Sign of Pre-Yellen Tilt

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As we discussed this morning, sometimes markets will take a "lead-off" ahead of a big potential market mover if there's an underlying predisposition that traders have been 'hiding' (for lack of a better term). This has resulted in some surprisingly big moves ahead of things like NFP releases and Fed Announcements over the years. Even without such a big movement, we still usually see some signs of increased bet-making on the run up to the big event. But not this time. Bonds gave no clues about what they might be thinking ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. That said, they did react in some small way to the stronger Durable Goods numbers. Before that, bonds were in just slightly stronger territory through the overnight session. When Durable Goods came out...(read more)

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